US war plans panic Canada's elite
By Keith Jones
19 February 2002

Echoing the concerns of many European politicians and editorial writers, Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien has counselled the US not to embark on a unilateral military campaign to topple the Iraqi government.

Speaking in Moscow last Thursday at a joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chrétien reiterated his government's support for the US occupation of Afghanistan and its purported world anti-terrorism war. However, he then joined Putin in de-linking the US-Iraqi dispute from the question of terrorism. 'The question of the production of unacceptable armaments in Iraq," affirmed Chrétien, "is a problem that is under the authority of the United Nations, and it is completely different than the problem of terrorism."

Chrétien urged the US to work in concert with its traditional allies and through the UN Security Council, rather than act on its own against Iraq. "If we try to do it unilaterally," said Canada's Prime Minster, "it will go absolutely nowhere."

Later the same day, Canada's External Affairs Minister made like comments while on his maiden ministerial visit to Washington. After meeting with US Secretary of State Colin Powell, Graham declared, "Nobody is supporting [Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein but everybody recognizes that in international politics, you have to have a process in which, before you invade a sovereign country, there has to be a reason for it or we?re going to lead to international chaos."

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The fears of the Canadian ruling class are three-fold. First, that a US war against Iraq will redound against the interests of the major capitalist powers. "Thoroughly dangerous as Iraq is," argued a recent Globe and Mail editorial, "attacking it would be more dangerous still. The likeliest result of such a campaign ... would be that the country would break up and destabilize the entire Middle East."

The second fear of Canada's elite is that the US's refusal to accept the traditional norms of inter-state behaviour-encapsulated in the Bush doctrine that you are either with or against the US-is destabilizing world geo-politics and could ultimately split NATO. A serious rupture between the US and Europe would pull the rug out from the Canadian elite's traditional strategy of resisting US pressure and asserting its own interests by promoting multinational institutions and alliances. Put bluntly, Canada would be pulled even more tightly into the US orbit, thus further reducing the ability of the Canadian bourgeoisie to pursue policies designed to advance its own imperialist interests and ambitions.

Last but not least, Canada's rulers, or at least their most astute representatives, fear that if the US draws Canada into a wider war-Bush and his cabinet cohorts have spoken of years of military strife-class conflict at home will be greatly exacerbated. Already, Canada has come under severe criticism from the US and NATO for not devoting sufficient state resources to its military.

Although the Chrétien Liberal government has seconded the European elite's criticisms of US militarism and unilateralism, the economic and geo-political position of Canadian capital differs fundamentally from that of its European rivals. The most powerful sections of the European bourgeoisie are not anxious for a conflict with the US and like the Chrétien Liberals would probably prefer that the clock was turned back to before September 11. But through the deepening integration of the European Union and the launch of the Euro, they have built a powerful platform from which to assert their global interests. By contrast, the intensifying inter-capitalist struggle for markets and profits has driven Canadian capital into an ever-tighter economic relationship with the US. Canada's proximity to the US and its dependence on the US market-some 40 percent of Canada's GNP is directly tied to cross-border trade-dictates that in any serious crisis among the imperialist powers, the Canadian bourgeoisie will fall in line with the US.

Deputy Prime Minster Michael Manley admitted as much in a recent interview. After voicing opposition to a unilateral US attack on Iraq, Manley said, "I'm not going to tell you that I think, because we try to cooperate with them [the US], that therefore we're going to influence them. ... If they're going to make a decision on Iraq for example, it?s their decision. They'll hear us. They'll hear the British, the Europeans. They'll make their own decisions. ... I don't think we need to agree with them when we think they're wrong. At the same time we have to realize that there are certain realities here. We are on the North American continent."

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